Independence, Greens, or Something Else? What's next for us in Scotland?

I’m scared. Not the kind of comment that usually follows a resignation statement, but such was the absolute totality of Nicola Sturgeon’s time as First Minister of Scotland and leader of the Scottish National Party. Sturgeon outlasted Liz Truss, Boris Johnson, Theresa May, David Cameron, Ruth Davidson, Jim Murphy, Kezia Dugdale, Richard Leonard, Jeremy Corbyn, Queen Elizabeth II, and more Liberal Democrats than you can shake a sweater at. Accusations of a “one-party state” are of course clickbait designed to overlook that negligible trifle known as democracy, but since 2014 the SNP has been a one-woman show. Her sheer longevity made her totemic. She was there a million years ago during the Independence Referendum; she was there when Brexit was an impossibility and when global pandemics were the stuff of science fiction. For my generation, she has quite simply always been there.

“I’m scared”. I asked my friend what they meant. To her, Sturgeon was more than just a politician, she was a dam. Sturgeon was a barrier against the Tories, against Brexit, against COVID, and the carrier of the flame of Independence. I enjoyed the sentiment. I had even believed it enough to lend a few votes once upon a time. But now that Sturgeon was moving on I couldn't help but notice what an ineffective dam she was. The Tories have held sway in Westminster since 2010. Scotland was dragged out of the EU against its will. Scotland’s COVID death rate wasn’t much better than England’s, and the polling on Scottish Independence is exactly where it was in 2014.

Even Sturgeon’s resignation speech wasn’t exactly glittering with starry achievements. There were noble calls for civility in politics, thanks were given to those who deserved it -utterly standard fare that her supporters enjoyed and her detractors pooh-poohed. The only interesting thing was the final question ominously posed before Sturgeon could walk off the world stage.

Suddenly Sturgeon no longer looked like she was hanging up her crown for the good of the nation and her own mental health. She looked like she was fleeing. The SNP has been accused of what looks to me like cooking the books. The layers of the scandal were pretty much all reported first by the pro-independence blog and terf-hub Wings Over Scotland in 2020. Many have had a three-year head start on the shock and sadness that comes with finding out £600,000 of IndyRef2 money has vanished.

From what I can tell, the view from this side of the generational divide isn’t great. The Green Party have been syphoning SNP votes for years by actually being left-wing. Independence voters like myself are abandoning the party given their inability to get Scotland any closer to a referendum never mind independence. Those more keen on the SNP for their Blairite middle-management tendencies have been turned off by the stench of corruption normally worn by the Tories. And those who voted largely because of how much they liked Sturgeon are left with the growing plausibility that she may be arrested just like ex-Treasurer Colin Beattie, and former SNP Chief Executive Peter Murrell. The latter of whom, and I cannot stress this enough, is married to Sturgeon.

The views of the youth of the nation are of course varied. It’s worth remembering that not everyone under 25 is a card-carrying socialist. Even in 2014, most under 24’s voted “No”. But what does seem to have set in, is the disappointment. Disillusionment in politics -like a taste for BBC Radio Two- tends to seep in slowly as one gets older. But for an entire age group, the feeling seems to have hit all at once, not with a whimper, but with a bang. Watching the SNP’s reputation collapse and Sturgeon barricade herself away from the storm so quickly has been like watching Ozymandias’ head hit the sand before the plaque’s even been finished.

We’re feeling a lot of things -my generation. Some believe that Independence is an inevitability. Some believe that it’s the Greens that will get us there, or maybe Alba, or maybe even Humza Yousaf. Some feel that maybe the SNP need some time in opposition to get their act together. But looking at the SNP now, that “colossal Wreck, boundless and bare”, no one is feeling hopeful.